On leaving the EU with no deal: Potential disruption to air travel

In her Lancaster House speech, Theresa May said:

And while I am confident that this scenario need never arise – while I am sure a positive agreement can be reached – I am equally clear that no deal for Britain is better than a bad deal for Britain.
(emphasis added)

Given this position, it’s worth knowing what the consequences of “no deal” would mean. In the worst case scenario (e.g. talks breaking down) this means looking at the consequences of Britain reaching the Article 50 deadline without any sort of agreement whatsoever having been struck with the EU.

In this scenario, on the day before Brexit, Britain will still be a full member of the EU enjoying all the privileges and subject to all the obligations that entails. On the next day, Britain will be outside the EU completely, treated in the EU’s parlance as a “third country” and having to deal with the EU on the default terms they apply to any non EU/non single market country. When references are made to a “cliff edge” in the media comment on Brexit, it is this sudden transition from full EU member to being outside the EU (and the single market) that is being referred to.

Here, I consider the consequences of leaving without a deal for the airline industry, where recently the Guardian reported that UK airlines may have to open bases of operation in other EU states and/or sell off shares to EU nationals post Brexit or lose major routes.

I conclude that if there is literally no deal, the likely consequence will be considerable disruption to UK/EU airline industry. This is in neither the UK or EU’s interests, though and a deal that ensures the UK remains part of the regulatory system for aviation in the EU should be feasible. Read the rest of this entry »

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The EU referendum was not intended to be advisory

I contend that, contrary to the claim that the EU referendum was intended to be advisory, it was in fact the clearly and repeatedly stated intention of the government to honour the result of the EU referendum, that our Parliamentarians knew this was the intention when they passed the legislation and voters were told clearly that this was the case in the campaign itself.

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It seems unlikely to me that Brexit will lead to Scottish independence

One the 23rd June, Scotland voted 62% vs 38% for remaining in the EU, which is of course at odds with the overall UK vote of 52% vs 48% for Leave.

Since then, Nicola Sturgeon and the Scottish government have been quick to put the option of holding a second referendum on independence on the table, but Sturgeon has so far fallen short of saying it would definitely happen, and talked about looking at all the options for Scotland to remain in the EU.

With the SNP taking 56/59 of the Scottish seats at Westminster in 2015 and forming another administration at Holyrood, with the help of the pro-independence Scottish Green Party, and with the vote to leave the EU being explicitly one of the options Sturgeon had mentioned that might trigger a second independence referendum, many are now talking about the possibility of that happening and thus of Brexit leading to the breakup of the UK.

However despite these poll results, it seems to me rather unlikely that Scotland will become independent in order to become an EU member.

The reasoning for this is simple

  • I expect Scotland to end up outside the EU, having to apply to join, if she obtains independence from the UK.
    • It seems to me most unlikely that Scotland will be able to remain in the EU as the rest of the UK leaves, it is highly speculative as to how it would work and it requires cooperation from the EU and the UK to happen, and it’s not clear why either the UK or EU would entertain the notion.
  • Voting to leave both the UK and the EU means voting for a double dose of economic uncertainty, an extra dose on top of that caused by Brexit itself. It thus seems to me that an independence referendum with that as the choice will be even harder for the SNP to win than the 2014 referendum was. Questions about how the deficit will be dealt with, what currency option will be pursued, etc will be even more stark than they were in 2014.

Additionally, I note that a recent opinion poll did not favour Scottish independence in the event of Brexit.

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It’s too early to assess the impact of Brexit

Since the vote to leave the EU on the 23rd of June there have been a number of reports in the media on the state of Britain’s economy.

On the positive side, the reports have included:

On the negative side, the reports have included:

I have a few problems with these reports:

  • We haven’t left the EU yet! The indicators at best indicate what the impact of the vote to leave has been, and will in fact be some combination of that and other factors. To the extent they reflect the impact of the vote, they will be indicating the uncertainty that has arisen as a result of the vote but prior to even the beginning of negotiations which won’t start until 2017.
  • Some of the indicators are likely to be lagging indicators that will not yet show the impact of the June vote, e.g. figures relating to employment/unemployment will be showing mainly the impact of pre-vote decisions/factors.
  • There’s huge amount of uncertainty that will persist until we know what the outcome of the negotiations with the EU will be.

To claim that predictions about the impact of Brexit, whether positive or negative, are now being proven true (or false) is thus extremely premature.

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Can the Scottish parliament veto Brexit?

In short: in my completely non-expert opinion, based on plain reading of the Scotland Act and the evidence used to suggest this in the first place, no.

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